Interest rates have declined by 23.7% since January 2025, signalling further cuts in lending rates.

According to Databank Research, this reflects improved policy signalling and stronger expenditure controls.

In its market outlook for 2026, it said the pace of easing moderated through the second quarter of 2025 to the third-quarter of 2025, with rates stabilising within a 10.40%–10.90% corridor.

“Looking ahead, we expect a gradual firming of yields in Q1’26, with short-term rates projected to rise by 50–60 basis points from quarter 4, 2025 levels, driven by increased issuance and tighter liquidity conditions. Market pressures are likely to resurface in quarter 2 2026, as investors reassess the durability of fiscal consolidation beyond the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme horizon, potentially pushing 91- day and 182-day bill rates towards the 14%–18% range by end- quarter 2026”, it stated.

Secondary Bond Market

It continued that the secondary bond market will sustain its recovery trajectory into 2026, supported by improving turnover and reinforced fiscal discipline.

There will be a total domestic debt service obligation of GH¢131.8 billion over 2026 to 2028, including cumulative redemptions of around GH¢65 billion in 2027 and 2028, present notable refinancing pressures.

“However, we anticipate that likely fresh bond issuance, potentially including the retap of select existing DDEP [Domestic Debt Exchange Programme] papers as part of a controlled reopening, should help smooth the maturity profile and ease sovereign refinancing pressures”, said Databank Research.

It added that cumulative turnover, at GH¢1.07tn as of September 2025, signals a return to post-DDEP liquidity conditions and a substantial improvement from the GH¢5.2 billion recorded a decade earlier, setting the stage for continued investor engagement as market activity is expected to accelerate through 2026.

It concluded that the ongoing IMF ECF, scheduled to conclude in June 2026, remains a key policy anchor and is expected to support yield stability as the government re-engages the bond market to meet funding requirements. Overall, we anticipate the market to start the year on a constructive trajectory, with the sustainability of these gains contingent on the credibility of ongoing reforms and disciplined fiscal execution.