Sanity Africa, the Pan-African civil society organisation, which recently predicted the victory of Bernard Baidoo of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the tightly contested Akwatia by-election, has released its Phase Two survey on the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primaries.

The findings reveal a shifting landscape as the party looks ahead to the January 2026 general elections.

According to the abridged October report, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, popularly known as Ken, has consolidated his position as the frontrunner among NPP delegates, commanding 53.1% of voting intentions.

This represents a 1.7 percentage point increase from the Phase One survey conducted in July.

Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB), the former Vice President, follows with 39.0%, reflecting a 3.2-point decline. Behind them are Dr Bryan Acheampong at 5.0% (up 1.9 points), Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum at 2.0% (down 1.0 point), and Ing. Kwabena A. Agyepong at 0.9% (rising from 0.3%).

The survey, carried out between July and October 2025, sampled 15,000 delegates from an estimated 218,000 in the expanded voter album across all 276 constituencies.

It boasts a 99% confidence level with a ±5% margin of error. Regionally, Ken leads in 10 of Ghana’s 16 regions, including strongholds such as Ashanti (54.8%), Central (69.0%), and Eastern (54.8%).

Dr Bawumia maintains an advantage in six regions, particularly in the north, including North East (70.0%) and Upper West (60.2%). Competitive races are unfolding in Bono East, Savannah, and Upper East, where margins remain slim.

Notable shifts include Dr Bawumia widening his lead in the North East Region from 51.6% to 70.0%, while Ken strengthened his position in Volta (50.8%) and Bono (53.0%).

Dr Bryan Acheampong registered significant gains in his home region of Eastern, rising to 21.7%. Sanity Africa noted that these shifts reflect evolving delegate sentiments influenced by campaign strategies and regional dynamics.

The organisation emphasised that while Ken Agyapong currently has the upper hand, the contest remains fluid.

Endorsements, messaging, and campaign strategies, it said, are expected to play critical roles in shaping the outcome.

With Phase Three of the survey scheduled for release in January 2026, Sanity Africa concluded that Ken may be the one to beat — but the race is far from over.