A latest survey by Global InfoAnalytics has forecast a decisive win for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Baba Jamal, in the Ayawaso East by-election scheduled for Tuesday, March 3, 2026.

The poll, conducted between February 28 and March 1, sampled 972 voters within the constituency and shows Baba Jamal holding a substantial lead over his closest rival, Baba Ali of the New Patriotic Party (NPP).

According to the projections, the NDC candidate commands 75 per cent of the expected vote, while Baba Ali trails with 21 per cent. Independent contender Umaru Sanda Muhammed, who recently parted ways with the NDC, is projected to secure about 3 per cent.

The remaining aspirants, Ibrahim Iddrisu and David, are each tipped to obtain less than one per cent of the ballots cast, reflecting a race largely dominated by the two main political parties.

The by-election follows the passing of the sitting Member of Parliament, Mahama Naser Toure, who died in January while receiving treatment at the Korle Bu Teaching Hospital, creating a vacancy in the Ayawaso East Constituency.