The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut Ghana's growth rate for 2022 to 3.6%, from the earlier 5.2%.

In its Economic Outlook Report, the Fund expressed worry that countries like Ghana will be affected by happenings in other developed economies as growth in those countries are expected to contract.

The Bretton Wood institution warned that moves by Central Banks in developed countries to check inflation with further tightening will impact on economies like Ghana, as well as developments in Russia and Ukraine.

The projection by the IMF is slightly lower than 3.7% announced  by the Finance Minister, Ken Ofori-Atta in the revised Mid-Year Estimates presented to parliament on July 25 2022.

The IMF in the World Economic Outlook Report, however forecast that economic growth in 2023 will slow down to 2.8% and peak strongly in 2027, reaching 6.8%.

IMF’s Economic Outlook Report

The Economic Outlook Report, which was christened “Countering the Cost of Living” also warned that the worse is yet to come, warning that countries could face challenges.

“Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades”, the report said.

“The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic” it added.

 Implications

Some economists say the projection by the IMF shows that the Fund is also optimistic about the projected expansion for Ghana’s economy by the end of 2022.

It is expected that projected revenue by government could be achieved.

This may also have a positive impact of on Ghana’s debt to GDP ratio.

The Economic and Financial data released by the Bank of Ghana in October, 2022 put the country debt at ₵402 billion. The debt to GDP ratio declined to 68% at the end of July 2022.

The data also puts the total value of Ghana’s economy, ending July 2022 at ₵591 billion.

Ghana’s second quarter growth numbers

Data from the Ghana Statistical Service shows that Ghana’s economy expanded by 4.8% in the second quarter of this year, higher than the 3.4$ recorded in the first quarter.

The appreciable growth rate was driven by Manufacturing (8.8%), Crops and Cocoa (4.5%), Mining and Quarrying (4.4%), Information and Communication (12.4) as well as Education (13.2%) sub-sectors.

World Bank on Ghana’s growth and debt dynamics

The World Bank in its Africa Pulse Report projected that Ghana will end 2022 with a growth rate of 3.5%, instead of the 3.7% forecast by government.

The World Bank is also projecting that Ghana’s Debt-to-GDP Ratio will hit 104.6% at the end of 2022, up from 76.6% in 2021.

Impact on end of year projection

The projection by the IMF could mean that Inflation for the month of August 2022 which is pegged at 33.9$% could be slowing down in the coming months.

Inflation for the month of August 2022 reached the highest in 21 years.

However, the month on month data showed that the rate of increase has been declining.