Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, says National Democratic Congress (NDC) National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia's strong showing in the firm's latest tracking poll has been driven largely by support from New Patriotic Party (NPP) voters, while Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson continues to enjoy a significant advantage among floating voters.

According to the survey, Mr. Asiedu Nketia and Dr. Ato Forson are statistically tied in the race to become the NDC's presidential candidate after President John Dramani Mahama, with the poll carrying a confidence level of 99% and a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

Speaking on Joy FM's Top Story on Monday, July 27, after the release of the research firm's July longitudinal tracking poll, Mr Dankwah said although Mr. Nketia enjoys a marginal lead in the headline figures, the difference falls within the survey's margin of error and therefore cannot be interpreted as a clear advantage.

Breaking down the results by political affiliation, however, he said the source of each candidate's support reveals a different picture.

"What you also see is that when you divide this data according to party affiliation, you realise that Asiedu Nketia's lead has been propelled by his level of support among NPP voters," he explained.

He added that within the NDC's own support base, Mr. Asiedu Nketia's advantage over Dr. Ato Forson is only about three percentage points, a gap he said is also statistically insignificant because of the survey's margin of error.

Read also: Asiedu Nketia and Ato Forson in dead heat for NDC leadership ahead of 2028 – Poll

Mr. Dankwah noted that Dr. Ato Forson outperforms Mr. Nketia among floating voters—a voting bloc often considered crucial in determining the outcome of national elections.

"Among the floating voters, Ato Forson has a big advantage," he said.

He further disclosed that respondents who declined to disclose their political affiliation rated all the leading contenders almost equally, while Dr. Ato Forson also held a five-point lead among supporters of smaller political parties.

"And among those who support other candidates and other parties, Ato Forson has a five-point lead," he added.

Asked what factors were influencing respondents' preferences, Mr. Dankwah said the survey did not specifically seek reasons for candidate choices.

However, he noted that previous Global InfoAnalytics research consistently found that voters place significant emphasis on a candidate's performance, vision, ability to serve effectively in government, and contribution to the party when assessing potential presidential candidates.

Although the race within the NDC appears increasingly competitive, Mr. Dankwah said Dr. Ato Forson remains the party's strongest potential candidate in a hypothetical 2028 presidential election.

According to him, the Finance Minister performs better than Mr. Asiedu Nketia among floating voters and also attracts comparatively stronger support from some NPP supporters, giving him broader appeal in a national contest.

He added that while Mr. Nketia has been highly visible through his nationwide "thank you" tour, Dr. Ato Forson has yet to publicly indicate whether he intends to contest the NDC flagbearer position.

"We've not heard anything from Ato Forson yet. He's not spoken. If he does speak, I think that could fundamentally change the race," Mr. Dankwa said.

He suggested that uncertainty surrounding the Finance Minister's intentions may be causing some potential supporters to hold back.

"Some people are just holding back because they're not quite sure he's going to contest. Even a lot of people in high places don't believe he's going to contest, or even know if he's going to contest. But from this data, it will be highly unlikely for him to say he won't contest," he said.