A new survey by Africa Policy Lens (APL) shows the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) with a clear lead in national voter intention.

The “National Voter Perception Poll”, which the APL says it conducted from 23rd to 30th May 2026, surveyed 6,483  voters across all 16 regions to gauge political preferences, electoral participation, economic conditions, and perceptions of Ghana’s direction.

Key findings:

The report indicates that the NPP currently enjoys a "measurable advantage in national vote intention", with 49% of respondents indicating support for the NPP, 38% for the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC), while 8% of the respondents said they were undecided. 

Those who said they won't vote we're 3%, while 2% said they would vote for other political parties.

When it comes to gender demographics, the report says more women leaned towards the NDC, while the NPP found favour with majority of men.

About 44% of females preferred the NDC, 32.4% preferred the NPP, 2.3% for other parties, 14.4% undecided, and 6.9% said they won't vote.

In the male vote preference report, 51% preferred the NPP, 36.7% for the NDC, 1.7% for other parties, 7.5% were undecided while 3.1% said they won't vote.

Competitive race despite NPP lead

Despite the NPP's 11% advantage in the national voter preference, the APL said the electoral environment “remains competitive".

“The NDC retains support from more than one-third of respondents, while approximately one in every twelve voters remains undecided,” the report stated.

According to APL, support for both parties is closely tied to 4 factors: perceptions of national direction, economic satisfaction, personal wellbeing, and likelihood to vote, with partisanship driving many choices.

“Current vote intention reflects both partisan loyalties and broader evaluations of governance and economic performance. The regression evidence reinforces these findings,” the report noted.

The poll found a sharp split in voter sentiment and says voters with positive views on national conditions and the economy were more likely to support the NDC, while voters dissatisfied with the economy and pessimistic about national direction leaned toward the NPP.

While partisanship, economic impact, and national direction were key drivers, APL highlighted the strategic weight of undecided voters.

At 8%, that bloc, the report observed, could swing outcomes of a tight race.