A detailed analysis of trade data has found strong evidence that GoldBod has substantially reduced gold smuggling in Ghana, leading to improved foreign exchange inflows and stronger macroeconomic outcomes.

The findings are contained in a technical report that examines mirror-trade data, independent studies and post-reform export figures.

Before the introduction of GoldBod, the report estimates that Ghana formally captured only about two-thirds of its gold export value.

Using United Nations Comtrade data, the authors point to a US$2.3 billion gap between gold imports recorded by the United Arab Emirates and Ghana’s reported exports over 2022 and 2023, suggesting that roughly one-third of gold output was leaking through informal channels.

These findings are reinforced by research from SWISSAID and Reuters, which estimate that over five years, nearly 229 metric tonnes of Ghanaian gold—worth about US$11.4 billion—went undeclared.

“Much of the missing volume flowed through Dubai via informal routes, exploiting weak border controls and tax distortions,” the report notes.

Against this backdrop, the surge in recorded ASM exports in 2025 is described as a clear formalisation effect. Recorded ASM exports increased by 39.4 tonnes within a single year, which the authors describe as the programme’s “formalisation wedge”.

“This increase is too large to be explained by price movements alone,” the report states.

The economists conclude that by reducing smuggling, GoldBod has helped ensure that gold production translates into actual foreign exchange inflows, easing pressure on the cedi and supporting reserve accumulation.

“When gold is formalised, its macroeconomic impact becomes visible,” the report says, adding that the reform has strengthened Ghana’s capacity to stabilise the economy and manage external vulnerabilities.