The United States became a net exporter of crude oil to Nigeria in February and March, as crude demand on the U.S. East Coast slowed due to refinery maintenance and the Dangote refinery drove up Nigeria's demand for inputs, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a note on Tuesday.

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT

This is the first time that the U.S. has exported more crude oil to Nigeria than it imported. Nigeria is generally considered a source for U.S. crude oil imports, ranking ninth last year.

CONTEXT

Nigeria's Dangote oil refinery – the largest in Africa, located on the outskirts of Lagos – began processing crude in January 2024 after years of delays. The refinery is set to reach full capacity of 650,000 b/d this year, according to the EIA.

BY THE NUMBERS

Gross U.S. exports of crude to Nigeria touched 111,000 b/d in February and 169,000 b/d in March. Imports, which were at 133,000 b/d in January, dropped to 54,000 b/d and 72,000 b/d in February and March respectively.

The decline in imports is largely due to maintenance at the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery New Jersey, per the EIA. However, imports increased later in the year as the Bayway refinery resumed normal operations in April, and Dangote underwent some unplanned maintenance.

KEY QUOTES

This trend seems more a snapshot of a very fluid market, rather than a permanent realignment, according to Eli Tesfaye, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

"The new refinery in Nigeria and some issues in securing domestic supplies played a role for those unique flows earlier this year. But going forward, with the refinery now aiming to secure domestic flows, and probably looking at other crude grades, it is difficult to forecast if the volume flowing from the U.S. to Nigeria will persist," agreed Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.