A recent analysis by Africa Policy Lens has unveiled significant insights regarding the preferences of supporters within the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) and their views on potential flagbearers for the next general elections in 2028.

The report, released today, indicates that former Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia remains the frontrunner among NPP supporters for the party's presidential candidacy in 2028.

The survey revealed that a remarkable 70.6% of NPP respondents expressed their support for Dr Bawumia, showcasing a strong loyalty from the party's base.

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In stark contrast, NPP party stalwart Kennedy Agyapong trails behind with 21.4% of the same group indicating their preference for him as the party's candidate.

Figure 1: Preferred NPP flagbearer by respondent’s party affiliation (APL survey). Among NPP supporters, 70.6% favour Bawumia and 21.4% favour Agyapong; among NDC supporters, 48.4% favour Agyapong and 35.3% favour Bawumia (others/undecided omitted).

Additionally, the report provides a fascinating look at the opinions of members of the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC).

Surprisingly, Kennedy Agyapong enjoys considerable popularity among NDC supporters, with nearly 48.4% backing him, while Dr Bawumia receives support from 35.3% of NDC respondents.

The remaining participants remain undecided, illustrating a unique cross-party dynamic in the next elections.

Reasons for Bawumia’s popularity

Supporters of Dr Bawumia cited several compelling factors for their preference.

Many believe he represents the NPP's best chance to regain power in the 2028 election.

His northern heritage is viewed as a "strategic electoral asset" for two primary reasons: it could enhance the NPP’s competitiveness in traditionally NDC-dominant regions and further project the party's image as an inclusive, national entity.

The report emphasises, "Bawumia’s broad national appeal—evident in his lead across 12 out of 16 regions—reinforces his image as a unifying candidate with cross-regional support."

Regional support breakdown

Dr Bawumia's support spans a substantial portion of the nation, with his popularity particularly pronounced in NPP strongholds such as the Ashanti and Eastern Regions, as well as competitive areas like Greater Accra.

Conversely, Kennedy Agyapong leads in three regions: Central, Volta, and Western North, with the Ahafo region showing an even divide in preferences.

The survey highlights Dr Bawumia’s dominance in northern Ghana, where he is expected to secure significant support even among NDC voters.

“He would carry the Northern, North East, Upper West, Upper East, and Savannah regions, showcasing his cross-party appeal,” the report noted.

However, the findings also indicate that Dr Bawumia faces challenges in traditional NDC strongholds such as Volta and certain parts of Western North, areas that will require strategic campaigning to ensure a nationwide victory in the upcoming elections.

As the political landscape continues to evolve, the NPP's internal dynamics, along with the sentiments of NDC supporters, will play a critical role in shaping the strategies of the party leading up to the January elections.

Attached is the survey.