Former Western North Regional Minister and Director of Elections for Kennedy Agyapong’s campaign team, Joojo Rocky Obeng, has declared that Kennedy Agyapong is set to win the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) flagbearer race for the 2024 general elections.

Speaking on Asempa FM’s Ekosii Sen show on Wednesday, January 7, Mr Obeng argued that Agyapong’s commanding lead in six key regions of Ghana, which collectively account for 70% of the NPP’s total delegates, makes him the clear frontrunner.

Mr Obeng’s confidence stemmed from Kennedy Agyapong’s widespread support in the six regions that hold the majority of delegates within the party.

These regions Volta, Greater Accra, Central, Western, Eastern, and Ashanti are critical to the NPP’s internal election process, as they together comprise approximately 70% of the party’s delegates.

According to Mr Obeng, Mr Agyapong is currently leading in these regions, which, he believes, guarantees his victory.

“Anyone who understands how delegate elections work in the NPP knows that Ken has already won this election. The majority of delegates are concentrated in these six regions, and Ken is leading in all of them,” Obeng said, pointing to Agyapong’s strong grassroots support.

“These regions account for about 70% of the total delegates in the NPP, so if you control them, you have effectively won the race,” he added.

To reinforce his argument, Mr Obeng drew a comparison with the 2022 Kenyan presidential election, which saw William Ruto emerge victorious, despite polling data predicting a win for his opponent, Raila Odinga.

According to Obeng, several polling institutions, including the renowned InfoTrack, had forecasted Odinga’s victory. However, Ruto defied these predictions and triumphed at the polls.

“Before InfoTrack predicted that you would win an election, it generally meant you were close to winning. In the Kenyan case, InfoTrack and other polling organisations gave Odinga a larger share of the vote. They predicted that Ruto would only secure 41%, with Odinga getting the bulk of the vote,” Obeng explained, pointing out that this led many to believe Odinga’s victory was a certainty.

However, Ruto’s victory proved that polling predictions do not always reflect reality.

He argued that while polling can provide some insight, it is not always an accurate reflection of the actual result, especially when complex variables such as delegate preferences come into play.

Mr Obeng also raised concerns about the methods used in conducting polls, particularly in relation to delegate elections within the NPP.

He noted that some delegates had expressed dissatisfaction with the way polls were being conducted, particularly in relation to how their views were being captured.

“I’ve had instances where delegates have questioned how the polls are being conducted without affecting them. When you look at our electoral area, and even ask those in the next electoral area, no one has come to speak with us. Perhaps they’re using other scientific methods, but there is always the risk that a poll could fail,” Obeng remarked.

He believes that the true measure of a candidate’s support lies not in the predictions of polling firms, but in the tangible backing of delegates on the ground.

Mr Obeng also revisited the 2023 NPP presidential flagbearer race, where Kennedy Agyapong faced stiff competition, particularly from former Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia.

Despite the challenges Agyapong encountered, including pressure from the then-government, Obeng highlighted how the race was incredibly close, with Agyapong securing over 17,000 votes and Dr Bawumia narrowly edging ahead with just over 19,000 votes a margin of about 2,000 votes in the Greater Accra region.

“The 2023 election showed just how competitive the NPP flagbearer race can be. Despite facing significant opposition, Kennedy Agyapong was only 2,000 votes behind in Greater Accra, which is a critical region for delegates,” Obeng commented.

The NPP is preparing for the primaries amid heightened competition, with five candidates officially confirmed to contest for the party’s flagbearership ahead of the 2028 general elections.

The NPP primaries, scheduled for January 31, are expected to set the stage for the party’s strategy and candidate positioning for the upcoming national elections.